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How do you construct a confidence interval for the difference between two population means?

Topic 7.6 Confidence Intervals for the Difference of Two Means: check the conditions and construct a two-sample t-interval for the difference between two population means, including the paired case, using the unpooled standard error.

A focused answer to AP Statistics Topic 7.6, on building a two-sample t-interval for the difference of two population means and distinguishing it from a paired (one-sample) interval, with a full worked interval.

Generated by Claude Opus 4.811 min answer

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  1. What this topic is asking
  2. The two-sample interval and its standard error
  3. Conditions, doubled
  4. Paired versus two-sample: the key design distinction
  5. Try this

What this topic is asking

The College Board (Topic 7.6) wants you to construct a confidence interval for the difference of two means μ1μ2\mu_1 - \mu_2: check the conditions for both samples, use the unpooled two-sample standard error, and recognize when data are paired (analyzed as a one-sample interval on the differences).

The two-sample interval and its standard error

The point estimate is the observed difference xˉ1xˉ2\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2. The standard error follows the Topic 5.8 rule, add the two sample-mean variances s12/n1s_1^2/n_1 and s22/n2s_2^2/n_2, then square-root, because independent variances add. The degrees of freedom for two-sample tt are awkward (the Welch formula), so technology computes them; for hand work, a conservative choice is the smaller of n11n_1 - 1 and n21n_2 - 1. AP grading accepts either the calculator dfdf or the conservative dfdf.

Conditions, doubled

Everything in the one-sample shape check is applied to each group, plus a between-sample independence requirement. With small samples you must justify normality from a graph for both groups.

Paired versus two-sample: the key design distinction

The single biggest decision in this topic is paired or independent. If each value in one group is naturally matched to a value in the other, two measurements on the same subject (before/after), or matched pairs (twins, left/right), the data are paired. Then you compute one difference per pair and run a one-sample t-interval on those differences: xˉd±tsdn\bar{x}_d \pm t^{*}\dfrac{s_d}{\sqrt{n}} with df=n1df = n - 1, where nn is the number of pairs. Treating paired data as two independent samples is a serious error: it ignores the pairing that the design used to control variability, and uses the wrong standard error. If the two groups are separate, unrelated sets of units, the design is independent and the two-sample interval applies. Reading the design before choosing the procedure is itself an examined skill.

Try this

Q1. Write the unpooled standard error for xˉ1xˉ2\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2. [1 point]

  • Cue. SE=s12n1+s22n2SE = \sqrt{\dfrac{s_1^2}{n_1} + \dfrac{s_2^2}{n_2}} (add the two sample-mean variances, then root).

Q2. A study records each athlete's time on two track surfaces. Two-sample or paired? [1 point]

  • Cue. Paired (same athlete on both surfaces); analyze the differences with a one-sample t-interval.

Exam-style practice questions

Practice questions written in the style of College Board exam questions on this dot point, with worked answer explainers. The year tag is the paper they imitate, not the source.

AP 2018 (style)1 marksSection I (multiple choice). A study measures each subject before and after a treatment and analyzes the differences. The appropriate procedure is (A) a two-sample t-interval (B) a one-sample t-interval on the differences (paired) (C) a two-proportion z-interval (D) a chi-square test
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The correct answer is (B).

Before/after measurements on the same subjects are paired data. The correct procedure analyzes the single list of differences with a one-sample t-interval (a paired t-interval), not a two-sample procedure.

(A) is for independent samples, which these are not. (C) is for proportions. (D) is for categorical counts.

AP 2022 (style)4 marksSection II (free response). Independent random samples of two fertilizers give plant heights: fertilizer A, n1=30n_1 = 30, xˉ1=42\bar{x}_1 = 42 cm, s1=6s_1 = 6; fertilizer B, n2=35n_2 = 35, xˉ2=38\bar{x}_2 = 38 cm, s2=7s_2 = 7. (a) Check the conditions for a two-sample t-interval for μ1μ2\mu_1 - \mu_2. (b) Construct a 95%95\% confidence interval (use t=2.00t^{*} = 2.00). (c) Justify in context whether there is convincing evidence the mean heights differ.
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A 4-point two-sample mean interval.

(a) (1 point) Random and independent: two independent random samples. Normal/large: n1=30n_1 = 30 and n2=35n_2 = 35, both 30\ge 30, so the CLT applies. 10%10\%: each sample plausibly under 10%10\% of its population.
(b) (2 points) Difference =4238=4= 42 - 38 = 4. SE=6230+7235=1.2+1.4=2.61.612SE = \sqrt{\dfrac{6^2}{30} + \dfrac{7^2}{35}} = \sqrt{1.2 + 1.4} = \sqrt{2.6} \approx 1.612. Interval =4±2.00(1.612)=4±3.225=(0.78, 7.22)= 4 \pm 2.00(1.612) = 4 \pm 3.225 = (0.78,\ 7.22) cm.
(c) (1 point) The interval (0.78,7.22)(0.78, 7.22) excludes 00, so 00 is not a plausible difference; there is convincing evidence the mean heights differ (fertilizer A higher).

Markers reward conditions for both samples, the unpooled standard error, the t-interval, and the zero-check conclusion.

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